PPC Forecasting: How to predict budget, costs, clicks & ROI in 2025

In this article, you’ll learn how to:

• Present spend projections clearly and persuasively

• Align on the KPIs that actually drive results

• Account for the variables that impact performance

• Lean on benchmarks and references to make your projections bulletproof

• Use forecasting as a foundation for proving your PPC ROI to clients

What is PPC forecasting?

Before clients commit to a campaign, they want clarity: how much will it cost, and what results can they realistically expect? PPC forecasting answers those questions. It’s the process of using past data to predict campaign costs, future outcomes, and ROI of your clients' pay-per-click campaigns before they go live. 

A strong forecast helps you answer questions like:

• How much should we spend to reach a certain number of leads, sales, or conversions?

• What results are realistic given the competitive landscape?

• How can PPC budget be distributed across campaigns, channels, or keywords to reach the most potential customers and maximize ROI?

Done properly, forecasting serves as a communication tool that aligns your team and clients, sets realistic expectations, and provides a roadmap for campaign success.

Why forecasting matters in today’s AI-driven landscape

AI is shaking up PPC–making campaigns faster, more automated, and packed with data–but it can’t replace human insight. Seasonality, market shifts, audience behavior, and your client’s unique goals all need context that only careful forecasting can provide.

Proper PPC forecasting turns raw AI outputs into actionable strategies, giving you the clarity and control to guide campaigns confidently and avoid costly surprises.

With smart forecasting in an AI-driven world, you’ll:

• Set realistic budgets and goals, even in a rapidly changing environment.

• Evaluate AI recommendations against your clients’ priorities.

• Communicate clearly what’s achievable and what’s not.

• Spot opportunities and risks before campaigns go live.

Predictive analytics will allow us to offer proactive insights, helping clients make more informed decisions without waiting for manual analysis. This shift will enable us to spend more time on strategy and optimization, ensuring our clients get the most value from their campaigns.

Christian Watson, Co-Founder, Local Propeller

PPC forecasting methods explained

There’s no single “right” way to build a PPC forecast. The approach you take depends on the client, the data you have, and how predictable the market is. Most reliable forecasts fall into one of three buckets: top-down, bottom-up, or trend-based. The best agencies mix methods depending on the scenario to create a projection that feels realistic, defensible, and easy to communicate.

Top-down forecasting

Top-down forecasting starts with the end goal–usually revenue, return on ad spend (ROAS), or leads–and works backward to estimate the spend required to hit that target.

It’s fast, it’s intuitive, and it’s especially useful when clients come to you with a fixed outcome in mind (“We want 300 leads next quarter–what will it cost?”).

For PPC professionals, top-down forecasting is helpful because:

• It sets expectations early and gives clients a clear understanding of what their goals truly require.

• It’s easy to present in a pitch, proposal, or quarterly review.

• It simplifies planning when you’re working with clients who prefer outcome-based budgeting.

The downside? It assumes your funnel behaves consistently, which isn’t always true. Top-down works best when you have strong historical data or highly stable markets.

Goal setting is critical for establishing agency-client alignment. When we set goals in collaboration with our clients, not only are we saying, "This is what we are trying to accomplish," but we're also creating the structure for how to determine if our efforts are successful or not.

Kerrie Luginbill, Chief Strategy Officer, OTM

Bottom-up forecasting

Bottom-up forecasting does the opposite: it starts with the tactical elements–cost per click (CPC), click-through rate (CTR), conversion rate, impression share–and builds the forecast from the ground up.

This method gives agency teams far more control and precision. Instead of guessing what it takes to hit a target, you model performance based on the actual mechanics of the account.

Agency leaders often prefer this approach because:

• It produces highly credible forecasts backed by real inputs.

• It helps identify bottlenecks or opportunities before campaigns launch.

• It creates a shared understanding across teams—strategy, creative, and client services all start from the same assumptions.

Bottom-up forecasting shines when clients want transparency into your thinking, or when you’re dealing with competitive or volatile markets where assumptions matter.

Example: A local mechanic wants 40 appointment bookings per month. Your historical data shows a 3.5% conversion rate and $6 CPC for keywords like "brake repair" and "oil change near me." Working bottom-up: 40 appointments ÷ 0.035 = 1,143 clicks needed × $6 CPC = $6,858 monthly budget required.

Start your free 14-day trial and see why companies trust AgencyAnalytics for accurate, client-ready PPC forecasts.

Time-series and trend-based forecasting

Time-series forecasting looks at historical trends, including seasonality, demand patterns, and performance fluctuations, and uses them to map out what’s likely to happen next. 

It’s powerful for industries where performance follows predictable cycles (retail, travel, real estate, education), and it helps account for external influences that raw CPC/CTR data can’t capture.

Why agency leaders love trend-based forecasting:

• It makes your forecasts more accurate by acknowledging real-world patterns.

• It’s ideal for long-term planning, especially for annual budgeting with established clients.

• It helps you explain why performance might change—before it actually does.

Trend-based forecasting is especially effective when combined with top-down or bottom-up models. It fills in the gaps by showing when demand will spike, when costs typically rise, and when conversion intent is highest.

Step-by-step guide to building a PPC forecast

Understanding these forecasting methods is one thing–applying them consistently across client accounts is another. That's where a structured process becomes essential. 

The step-by-step guide below shows you how to combine these approaches into a forecasting workflow that's repeatable, defensible, and tailored to each client's unique goals and market conditions.

Step 1: Define KPIs & objectives

Start by locking in the key PPC metrics you should be tracking for your new campaign, whether that’s CPC, CTR, conversion rate, CPA, or ROAS and align them with clear campaign objectives. This sets the foundation for your entire forecast.

Step 2: Gather & analyze historical data

Pull performance metrics from your clients’ PPC platforms and Google Analytics, including average cost-per-click, click-through rate, conversion rates, customer acquisition costs, impression share, and spend patterns. Look for trends, seasonality, and fluctuations that could affect future results. Historical data gives your forecast a solid baseline, showing what’s realistic, where you’ve struggled, and where opportunities lie.

We work to use the data presented from all channels to pivot when needed. As we see specific platforms' performance shifting, we take an overhead look at other channels that might be outperforming. From there, we reallocate budgets and continue to optimize. Without clear data, we're unable to make calculated decisions.

Christopher Marrano, Founder & CEO, Blue Water Marketing

Step 3: Analyze competitor performance & budgets

Competitive research shows you the landscape your forecast lives in. Use top PPC analysis tools like Semrush, SpyFu, and Google's Keyword Planner to see which other advertisers are bidding on the same keywords, how much they’re spending, and where they’re winning. This gives you an idea of average CPC, impression share, and expected results and highlights gaps and opportunities to capture more market share.

Step 4: Account for seasonality & external influences

Most industries have natural ups and downs. Look at market data, platform insights, and industry trends to spot those seasonal swings. Building seasonality into your forecast tells you when your client needs to scale up, when to ease off, and how to align messaging with their target audience's search behavior throughout the year.

Step 5: Build your forecasting model

With your clients' KPIs, historical data points, competitor insights, and seasonality lined up, you’re ready to build your forecasting model. Use a PPC forecasting tool like Google Ads Performance Planner or the forecasting feature in AgencyAnalytics to predict costs, conversion rate, and click-through rate for each search campaign in your forecast.

Step 6: Monitor, adjust & re-forecast

Once your clients’ campaigns launch, compare their actual results against your forecast. If actual performance deviates by a certain percentage from your forecast, it's time to reassess your assumptions and adjust your model.

Forecasts aren’t one-and-done. Regular updates help you stay aligned with real-time conditions, spot problems early, and make smarter decisions for future budget planning.

Common pitfalls and how to avoid them

Even with the best intentions, PPC forecasting can go sideways. Here are the issues agencies run into most often, and how to steer clear of them.

Overestimating demand in small markets: Local search volume is limited. Don’t project national-level results onto a city or neighborhood. Always validate keyword volume and competition at the hyperlocal level before setting expectations.

Relying on inconsistent client data: Most businesses come in with messy tracking, incomplete CRM notes, or no historical ad data. Build your models around verified numbers only, and document assumptions when gaps exist.

Not aligning forecasts with real budgets: Local clients often have tight, inflexible budgets. Make sure your projections reflect what their spend can realistically achieve in their specific market, not what’s theoretically possible.

Ignoring diminishing returns: Doubling your budget rarely doubles your results. Account for saturation points where additional spend produces smaller gains, especially in limited markets.

Failing to communicate uncertainty: Forecasting isn’t foolproof. Show ranges, not single numbers, and explain the variables. This protects trust, avoids any major issues, and makes proving your PPC ROI to clients far easier down the line.

Monitor performance across every paid ads platform you’re working with. Combine data from more than 80 integrations with AgencyAnalytics. Try it free for 14 days!

PPC forecasting tools and templates

Now that you know the common pitfalls to watch out for, it’s time to set yourself up for success. Let’s explore the best PPC tools for agencies–platforms and templates that make forecasting easier, streamline reporting, and show you how to create a client PPC report that’s clear, professional, and actionable.

1. AgencyAnalytics: Best for data-driven forecasting powered by your clients’ past performance

Key features:

• Data-backed projections: Generate credible, granular forecasts based on historical client performance.

• Trend visibility: Anticipate shifts in CPC, CTR, and conversions before they happen.

• Scenario planning: Compare optimistic, expected, and conservative outcomes to guide PPC strategy.

• Strategy alignment: Turn forecasts into actionable next steps for your team and clients.

• Automated reporting & dashboards: Pull live data from Google Ads, Google Analytics, and 80+ other platforms, then deliver branded, polished reports with zero manual work.

• AI insights: Highlight trends, anomalies, and opportunities in minutes—no digging through spreadsheets.

• Free PPC reporting template: Automate data collection, track ad performance, and keep clients in the loop with polished, branded reports.

Pricing: Paid plans start at $59/month for up to 5 users. Try it for free and see how AgencyAnalytics helps fine-tune your forecasting.

2. Semrush: Best for competitive insights and keyword research

Key features:

• Competitor ad analysis: See how rivals are bidding, what ad copy they’re using, and where they’re spending most.

• Keyword research & CPC data: Identify high-value keywords and understand potential costs for campaigns.

• Historical trends: Access past performance data to help inform projections.

• Cross-platform monitoring: Track Google Ads, Microsoft Ads, and display campaigns in one place.

Pricing: Starts at $117/month.

3. Optmyzr: Best for automated optimization and budget pacing

Key features:

• Budget tracking & pacing: Monitor spend in real-time and forecast when budgets will run out based on current trends.

• Performance forecasting: Use historical data to predict future clicks, conversions, and costs across campaigns.

• Rule-based automation: Set up automated bid adjustments and budget shifts based on performance thresholds.

• What-if scenarios: Test different budget allocations and bid strategies to see projected outcomes before implementing changes.

• Multi-platform support: Manage and forecast across Google Ads, Microsoft Ads, and Amazon Ads from one dashboard.

Pricing: Starts at $209/month.

Best tools for PPC forecasting: Summary

Semrush is great for insights and benchmarking, and Optmyzr excels at in-platform optimization, but for full predictive PPC forecasting, automated reporting, and client-ready dashboards, AgencyAnalytics remains the leading PPC reporting software solution. 

Maximize revenue and win new clients with data-driven PPC forecasting

The use of predictive analytics in marketing can take many forms, but PPC forecasting is where its value becomes especially clear. Accurate forecasts help you build smarter ad strategies, set realistic expectations, and provide a clearer path to ROI.

Start with the framework in this guide, refine it with each campaign, and watch your forecasts become one of your most powerful client retention tools.

Ready to build cost-effective forecasts that deliver maximum efficiency for your clients? Try AgencyAnalytics free for 14 days and see how automated reporting and predictive insights make accurate forecasting feel effortless.